This time last year the world was faced with the toughest holiday season yet, but with the hope that next year would be significantly better. With the possibilities of further lockdowns, weakening vaccinations, and new restrictions being increasingly discussed, many now fear a repeat of 2020. Despite this being the last thing governments want to do, with the new fears of the new Omicron variant will it be the harsh reality we have to face?

A big concern currently dominating the news is the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant. Designated a variant of concern by the WHO, Omicron has already made a significant international impact influencing travel and other restrictions. Current WHO research has not yet determined its transmissibility and severity compared to other variants, including Delta- making it increasingly hard to combat. However, preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalisation in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron.

Whilst the new variant was originally researched in South Africa, it’s effects can be seen largely in major cities such New York; confirming many scientist’s fears that the variant is a major threat. The state of New York reported more than 20,000 new cases on Friday for the first time since the start of the pandemic, further pushing Biden’s appeals for people to get vaccinated. This is due to many being concerned that given the US’s low vaccination rate, a wave of new infections during the holidays could cause a significant strain on the healthcare system. Jay Varma, the senior public health advisor warned that the positivity rate in the city was now doubling every 3 days. “Um, we’ve never seen this before in #NYC” he tweeted.

Similar patterns can also be seen in London where the new variant has resulted in the city declaring a ‘major incident’. As the Omicron variant sweeps through the capital, boroughs in Inner London have been recording a 70% increase in infections in the week ending the 10th December. It comes as England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Witty warned case records “will be broken a lot over the next few weeks” and that “We have two epidemics on top of one another- an existing Delta epidemic, roughly flat, and a very rapidly-growing Omicron epidemic on top of that’, further amplifying panic in not only the capital, but across the world.

Currently, the new variant has already resulted in multiple changes in restrictions, with more being feared to be implemented by the end of the holiday season. In the US, all inbound international travellers are required to test within one day of departure, regardless of nationality or vaccine status. Increasing concerns over Omicron has also prompted Biden to extend the federal mask mandate through March 18 to limit the spread of the virus where possible. However, in European countries such as the Netherlands a more serious approach has been taken, with the country going into a Christmas Lockdown due to their new Omicron wave. This includes people being urged to stay at home as much as possible, and limits being placed on the number of people who can meet – a maximum of two guests aged 13 and over will be allowed in people's homes, and four on 24-26 December and on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. The new wave has also resulted in England entering what is known as their “Plan B” on the 8th December. Boris Johnson’s Plan B consists of: reintroducing guidance to work at home, reissuing mask mandates, the introduction of NHS COVID passes for nightclubs and selected indoor/outdoor unseated venues, and daily testing for those identified as being in contact with a carrier. He also added that social distancing would be key in reducing transmission over the coming weeks, and hoped that these new restrictions would act as a reminder that protection from Omicron from just vaccines isn’t enough.

These new restrictions have also sparked major controversy with many wondering whether the COVID vaccinations are as effective as was originally thought and conveyed to them. WHO’s Dr Mike Ryan said there was no sign Omicron would be better at evading vaccines than other variants: "We have highly effective vaccines that have proved effective against all the variants so far, in terms of severe disease and hospitalisation, and there's no reason to expect that it wouldn't be so”. However, the New York Times as well as many other sources reported that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed no ability to stop Omicron infection six months after vaccination. Ninety percent of vaccinated people in India received this shot under the brand name Covishield, and it has also been widely used across much of sub-Saharan Africa- possibly posing an issue. In a UK study, the effectiveness of two shots of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines in preventing COVID-19 symptoms from Omicron fell to less than 40 percent within 15 weeks after the second dose. There was a lesser decline in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against Delta, but vaccine effectiveness still dropped to 60 percent after 25 weeks.

Source: Marvin Tolentino/ Alamy Stock Photo

Many countries such as the US and the UK are now running extensive schemes to issue booster vaccinations to their populations; in hopes that it will help reduce the severity of Omicron. The booster dose is currently recommended by the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention for everyone ages 18 and older. The CDC says people should get boosted six months after their second dose of the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines, or two months after the J&J vaccine. The CDC has also recommended boosters for 16- and 17-year-olds who were fully vaccinated with two jabs of the Pfizer vaccine. New US studies report that a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine increases antibody levels by 25-fold, which should be sufficient to neutralise Omicron. A booster dose of Moderna’s vaccine also improved the neutralisation of Omicron compared to the previous two shots alone. “The two doses with waning immunity mean there's no protection within a few months after the two doses,” says Peter Hotez, a paediatrician and vaccine scientist at Baylor College of Medicine. “The booster at least gives you something in the 70 percent range.”

Whilst the new measures and research might not be the best news for those hoping to return to normality, increased information on the virus and the presence of COVID vaccines/boosters has significantly improved our position from 2020. Current news on the new variant is also based on preliminary research; long term effects will only be known after more extensive peer-checked research has taken place.

The Future With Omicron