The question “When can I safely travel again?” is one on many minds as we approach the holiday season. Proposed ideas of vaccine passports may limit travel for some, and the economic effects of the pandemic may also make travel impossible for those who simply can’t afford the extortionate ticket prices. Challenges such as these will greatly affect those who wish to travel, and the trends we see for the foreseeable future. So what is the future of travel?

Previously, many countries such as the UK and US only allowed travel to/from countries with strong pandemic records. Some of these countries such as Taiwan used this to their advantage, and deployed them as marketing strategies e.g Discover Taiwan!. These restrictions meant that since the US borders were shut in March 2020, tourist travel to the UK, most of Europe and China has been halted. However, travel restrictions were lifted on November 8, allowing loved ones to travel for the holiday season which many missed out on the previous year.

The restrictions placed on many countries, increased fear, and lower average disposable incomes all contributed to the travel trends seen in 2020 and those we are expecting to see in 2021. In the US, international visitors were down 76% from the previous year mirroring the effect on total industry passenger revenues reported by the IATA (net losses of $126.4 billion). In Florida, where tourism accounts for 15% of the state’s revenue, officials claimed that it would take up to three years for the industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels. It had also been projected by the World Economic Outlook that the global economy would contract by 4.4% in 2020; the economic shocks experienced by tourism dependent countries were far worse. For example, Pacific island nations such as Fiji were predicted to see real GDP shrink by 21%. Therefore showing that the reopening of international travel corridors is crucial for the global economy.

However, travel to the US and other countries might not be as simple as before. The US will only accept those with a WHO-approved vaccination, posing an issue for those who don’t believe in the vaccine or are currently not being offered it in their home country. This has sparked a major debate as many believe that taking the vaccine is not necessary, and those who don’t choose to receive it shouldn't be punished. Currently, the restrictions only require travelers to be double vaccinated, but with the new presence of the booster vaccine this may change. It was also announced that travelers from countries where less than 10% of the population has been vaccinated will be allowed to enter the country. Some countries still remain on the no entry list, and most will not be able to travel from them if they have been there in the last 14 days e.g South Africa and Iran. This is not the case for all popular travel destinations- Spain, Portugal, Greece and Turkey are among the countries not requiring travelers to be vaccinated, but only have a negative PCR test result and/or a required quarantine.

The US is not the only country that has placed varying travel restrictions for the rest of the world. England, which had previously adopted the traffic light system, now has no countries on the red list. From the 4th of October, the mandatory PCR tests on arrival are being replaced with NHS lateral flow tests for some non-red-list vaccinated travelers. This is seen as an incentive to travel, as many PCR tests were originally priced at £90+ for many foreign visitors. Unvaccinated travelers will still be required to take a pre-departure, day 2 and day 8 PCR test as well as following a 10-day isolation period when they enter the country. This is a significant improvement from the previous travel restrictions, as they allow most travelers freely travel for the 2021 holiday season.

The future of travel is not only based on restrictions placed by countries, but also includes people’s willingness to pay higher ticket prices and willingness to travel during COVID. As with all things, one of the main factors behind flight prices is the law of supply and demand. During the height of the pandemic, the demand for flights was at its lowest and therefore airlines only ran at 20% or less capacity. Now that demand is rising, many airlines are beginning to return their capacity back to normal. However, with flights still not back to their pre-pandemic level and more people being able to now travel, this is resulting in increased ticket prices for many destinations. Australians are facing this issue this holiday season, due to their high demand and scarce supply of seats on services flying into the country. A backlog of over 45,000 Australians who have not been able to return home is also adding a layer of complexity to the problem. One of the most sought after routes (Sydney to New Delhi) is averaging at $1,051 there and $2,668 for the return. Many experts believe that it will take at least a year for prices to return to their pre-pandemic level. This is also a problem in the current economic climate. Weforum reported that 114 million people lost their jobs last year with many more becoming unemployed this year. This has resulted in less consumer spending, which includes spending on travel, as people have less disposable income. This means that less people can afford/ are willing to spend on traveling; slowing the progress of returning travel back to 2019 levels.

Fear is also another factor influencing travel during the current pandemic. The CN traveler reported that roughly 25% of the US population are anxious to travel. And those were pre-pandemic levels. Travel anxiety has significantly increased after the pandemic as many are now scared of the health risks associated with flying. Despite masks and testing requirements to fly, there are still concerns over whether airports and airplanes are COVID- hotspots. This reluctance to travel has especially been seen with older age groups and those with pre-existing medical conditions, who have been extra cautious since the beginning of the pandemic. These increased fears are likely to put off many people from traveling for the months to come.

CDC’s Travelling Tips

Wear a mask over your nose and mouth in public — ideally a N95.

Avoid crowded areas and stay at least 6ft/2m away from people you are not traveling with
Wash your hands or use hand sanitizer often (with at least 60% alcohol)
Limit contact to those who are fully vaccinated and/or members of your family
Short road trips with a few stops along the way, and flights with minimal layovers are best
Visit a fully vaccinated friend’s/family member’s home instead of a hotel
Bring your own food, takeout, or order from a drive through, and wear a mask when interacting with employees
Camp with those who are fully vaccinated/ in your household, and stay away from sharing facilities with others

Chances to travel may be largely returning back to normal for the holiday season, but additional factors may still influence the number of travelers over the next year. The industry has come a long way since the beginning of the pandemic, but there is still a long way to go before countries fully experience the economic benefits of pre-pandemic level travel, and people can safely travel with complete ease.

The Future of Holiday Travel Amidst Covid-19