Following an eight year long war between Ukraine and Russia, the Russian leader Vladimir Putin launched a ‘large scale invasion’ on a country of over 44 million on the 24th of February 2022. Whilst Kremlin officials themselves were surprised by Putin’s actions, thinkers associated with foreign policy realism had been predicting such conflict since as early as the 90’s.

Why did the invasion occur?

The invasion was a surprise to many across the world, partly also due to it being the first major war in Europe for decades. To truly understand the history of conflict between the countries, it’s vital to look as far back as the 800’s.

Both countries were originally founded by the same group of Vikings, the Varangians who originated in Northern Europe and formed the medieval kingdom, Kyivan Rus. The kingdom however was conquered by Mongol armies in 1240, which led to its division; Kyiv becoming part of the new commonwealth and Moscow becoming the capital of the Mongol Empire. It was in the 1500’s that Imperial Russia was established as its own empire, which was also home to Ukrainians by 1654. Despite many similarities which Ukrainians and Russians shared, there was a large difference of culture which ultimately led to tension between the groups. Multiple revolutions also occurred, with the most notable being that in 1917 which led to the formation of the Soviet Union. Whilst many Ukrainians tried to form their own country, they ultimately settled with the formation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, giving people the opportunity to keep their own culture.

However, the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, resulted in both Ukraine and Russia being independent — at least until 2014 when Russia took over Crimea, an area belonging to Southern Ukraine. Major driving forces behind this decision were Putin’s fears over Ukraine joining a military alliance with the US and Europe and the annexing of a Russian-friendly government, both resulting in increased threat to Russia.. He also claimed that many Ukrainians wanted to be a part of Russia, even though many protests had occurred prior to 2014 in Ukraine, often fighting for the alliance between Ukraine and US/ Europe. Fast forward eight years, where his stance seems similar, claiming that as Russia is the ‘older brother’ it should get to be in charge of the ‘brother nations’.

In an explanation published by the Kremlin in July 2021, Putin claimed that both Russians and Ukrainians were ‘one people’, and that the West had corrupted Ukraine due to US and NATO not meeting his previous demands. Nevertheless the question still remains, why did Putin choose to invade now?

His TV address on the 24th of February began with him explaining that Russia was under constant threat from Ukraine, leaving him with no other choice but to protect not only Russians, but Ukranians who agreed with his views. He also argued that his attempt would ‘deNazify and demilitarize” Ukraine, and therefore protect his other neighbors from Ukraine’s Jewish President, Zelensky. Whilst it is not uncommon for Putin to share such controversial views, many experts deny these reasons for being his main motive. Putin’s main motivation behind the attack is rumored to be due to his more maximalist goals of rebuilding Russia, perhaps returning to before the fall of the Soviet Union. This was heard in a speech by Putin where he stated his view that all post-Soviet states are a part of Russia, and Russia being the older brother should be able to take control. It’s no surprise to the world that Putin is on a quest for more power, or that he is trying to mask this by providing lies to make his actions appear more credible, with him being described as ‘a great illustration of how power hungry monsters are so adept at getting into power and overstaying their welcome’ by Brian Klaas.

What has happened?

After months of tension and multiple failed diplomatic talks/agreements between the two countries, Russia has now begun a large-scale attack on Ukraine and its 40 million residents. It was on February 21’st that Putin recognized the independence of two regions in Eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk. This move was critical to the beginning of the conflict as it paved the way for him to send military forces their way, with the argument being that it would protect them from Ukraine. However, the West was skeptical of Putin’s motives- proving to be right on the 24th when Putin launched a full-scale assault on the country, leading to Zelensky ordering a general mobilization.

To the surprise of the Kremlin, Moscow’s stock exchange dropped by over 25% after the US announced sanctions on Russian banks. This move was also followed by many other countries, with the G7 and EU proposing to announce further economic costs for Russia. One of the most surprising outcomes of the conflict could be said to be Switzerland breaking its long-term neutrality to support the EU’s efforts, highlighting the true extent of the opposition.

Despite the West proposing sanctions on Putin, the damage to Ukraine has still, and continues to be catastrophic for not only economic reasons (approx. $100+ billion of damage so far), but the population themselves. Since the beginning of the invasion it has been reported that over 3.5 million have evacuated, especially in the most hit areas, such as the capital, Kyiv. Multiple news agencies have also reported that the current civilian death toll is 3400+, however it is thought to be severely underestimated with the true extent of the impact remaining unknown. Even though Putin failed to achieve an early victory in his efforts to take over the country, the length of the conflict is leading to further losses for both countries, with some experts predicting the conflict to last years.

As of right now, Russia has now withdrawn forces from multiple Northern cities, including Kyiv and Sumy, with many in the eastern Donbas region being urged to evacuate as troops advance. It is clear that whilst Ukraine maintains control in Northern areas of the country, Russia is targeting full control in the East and beginning their progress in the South of the country. One big risk faced by not only Ukraine, but neighboring countries is the uncertainty of Putin’s actions. Currently, it could be argued that he may try to consolidate control over the whole country, despite the possibility of facing a large insurgency. The confusion of those within the Kremlin and other international leaders highlights the sudden nature of the attacks, and hence largely contributes to Ukraine’s vulnerability and fears. With many experts predicting that the conflict could last multiple years, it is unclear what the long-lasting effects may be, even with the increasing aid being given from other countries.

Unsurprisingly, many leaders across the world have applauded not only the country’s bravery but that of their leader, with Zelenksy earning a standing ovation from Congress ahead of his first address. Ukraine has not only been garnering support from the West, but also from many Russians themselves. Since the beginning of the attack, many daily anti-war protests have been taking place all over Russia, with many against conflict initiated in a country which is so similar to its own. It is thought that many 10’s of thousands of Russians have been arrested during these public displays, sparking fears of a possible revolution ultimately threatening Putin’s leadership. Recently, the Russian legislature passed a regulation that imposes prison sentences of up to 15 years to those who criticize Russian attacks, therefore decreasing the ability of their citizens to speak out against their leader’s actions and perhaps also helping Putin to create a narrative that his country supports him. Despite this, many protestors believe the risk is worth it for the opportunity to stand against Putin, and in some cases the change in laws has provoked further action against the Kremlin. Even though many Russian citizens are against the conflict, there is a large proportion of the population that is believed to support Putin’s ‘special operation’, and are under the belief that their leader is protecting not only their country but their neighbors too. Misconceptions such as these are being repeatedly spread not only within the country, but globally during his addresses too; causing many to now fear other lies which Putin has made his country believe.

In spite of the damage to Ukraine, Zelenky still stands firm on his beliefs that ‘We will not give up, we will fight to the end’, promising that Ukraine will not succumb to Putin’s attack and lies.

What's happening in Ukraine?

Why did the invasion occur?

What has happened?